Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[iwfal]

The key questions we should ask are whether the initial blew up is a 4 billions plus mistake?

That was the point of my post. By eschewing the Allergan strategy of, effectively, having separate prices for aesthetics and therapeutic, they (effectively) shrunk the therapeutic market in a way that isn’t reversible. Similarly, by eschewing all the tools usually used in aesthetics (eg coupons), and rolling out before they had a method to transmit to injectors a method to get longer duration for areas outside Glabellar, they forced themselves to have to cut prices to below the rest of market - again shrinking total future revenue size (in aesthetics this time).

2 years ago it was reasonable to assume that when Revance took over the US market (say 80% of everything but migraine) that meant their revenues would be Botox extrapolated out along historical Botox price hikes of almost 10% per year. But now that’s effectively impossible… they will max out at perhaps 50% of that. And it will take an extra 2 years to get there - so an additional NPV discount hit today. All told that’s a huge hit to current share price even before accounting for market doubt of Revance mgt.